European Elections Stats

European Parliament 2019 seat projection

European Parliament 2019 - Seat Projection (with and without the UK)

 

select the top and bottom pie and hover over each party to see the number of seats

 

 

 

Explore and use our data

The projection is based on the latest national polls in all 27/28 member states and is automatically updated by our software once a week - see our method.

All our data can be downloaded here: 

Without the UK:

- aggregate data

- data by national party

With the UK:

- aggregate data

- data by national party

Feel free to use our data - if you do, please reference us. 

1. European Parliament 2019 Seat Projection - without the UK

 

Results at national level - click on a member state 

(hover over each bar for more info)

Key insights (without the UK)

1. Far right groups in the European Parliament put together (ENF + EFDD + non-attached parties) could increase their share of seats by 35.4% - an increase from 12.9% of the total seats in the current European Parliament to 17.48% in the new Parliament [+4.57 percentage points]. Although these far right groups could increase their share of seats, they are likely to remain a fragmented minority. Some far right leaders are, however, currently attempting to form an alliance in the European Parliament after the May 2019 elections but it is unclear to what extent this will succeed.

2. ALDE (liberals) could increase their share of seats by 43.16% if joined by French President Emmanuel Macron's "En Marche". This would be an increase from 8.9% of the total seats in the current European Parliament to 12.77% [+3.85 percentage points]. ALDE could, however, still increase its share of seats by 8.3% without "En Marche" [+0.74 percentage points].

3. The main centre groups could both lose significantly. S&D (centre left) could see its share of seats decrease by -26.27% - a decrease from 25.43% of total seats in the current European Parliament to 18.75% [-6.68 percentage points]. EPP (centre right) could see its share of seats decrease by -11.69% - a decrease from 29.43% of total seats in the current European Parliament to 26% [-3.44 percentage points]. They will, however, clearly remain the biggest groups.

For more details, see the aggregate data and the data by national party. Please feel free to use our data. If you do, please reference us. [This text is based on calculations from 17/04/19. The graphs and data, however, are automatically updated every week, so there may be differences between this text and the graphs/data. If you want to see the exact time when the graphs/data were automatically updated, see the aggregate data file.]

2. European Parliament 2019 Seat Projection - with the UK

 

Results at national level - click on a member state 

(hover over each bar for more info)

Key changes, if the UK were to participate:

This alternative scenario includes the United Kingdom in the seat projection, based on the latest polls in the UK. This scenario is based on the pre-Brexit seat distribution (751 total seats, 73 for the UK) and strongly differs from the planned Brexit seat redistribution (705 total seats, without the UK). Key changes include:

1. The social democratic S&D, the biggest centre-left group, could win about 20 seats from the British Labour Party, partially mitigating the losses they could suffer in the new European Parliament without the UK (18,75% seat share without the UK, vs. 19.71% with the UK).

2. The conservative EPP, the biggest centre-right group, could see its relative seat share decrease from about 26% without the UK to 23.57% with the UK, due to the fact that the British Conservative party is not a member of the EPP group but is currently part of the more Eurosceptic ECR group.

3. UKIP (member of the ENF group) and the Brexit Party (member of the EFDD group) could win 7 and 15 seats respectively in the European Parliament, which would increase the total share of seats of far right groups by ~1 percentage point compared to without the UK. 

For more details, see the alternative aggregate data and the data by national party for the non-Brexit scenario. Please feel free to use our data. If you do, please reference us. [This text is based on calculations from 17.04.19. The graphs and data, however, are automatically updated every week, so there may be differences between this text and the graphs/data. If you want to see the exact time when the graphs/data were automatically updated, see the aggregate data file.]

Will the UK participate in the European Elections in May 2019?

The UK and the EU recently reached an agreement on extending the Brexit deadline until the 31.10.19. It is therefore likely that the UK will have to participate in the European Parliament elections, unless the British Parliament reaches an agreement on Brexit before the election day in the UK (23.05.2019). If the UK were to participate in the European elections, it remains unclear for how long British MEPs would stay in the European Parliament (EP). They could leave a few months after the elections, once the UK leaves the EU; or in case of a change of government or a second referendum with a pro-EU outcome, they could remain in the EP longer term.